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Danehill Star

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 70

Brighton · Bet 20 Pound Get 40 Pound In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap · 7f 216y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Multiple all-weather winner. Showed a good attitude when opening his turf account at the fifteenth time of asking over C&D and followed up in 10-runner handicap at Bath (1m, good to soft) 15 days ago. Hiked up 8 lb but not taken lightly in his hat-trick bid.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 31/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 57 · 1m1f104y Std 133 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 57 par31/036OR 576 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 59 · 1m Goo 130 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 1m Gd 134 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 59 par13/066OR 595 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 1m1f207y GF 131 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Nottingham 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 59 · 1m2f50y Goo 129 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 59 par4/076OR 596 @ Windsor 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 61 · 1m2f GF 131 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Brighton 06/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 61 · 7f216y Goo 131 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 61 par6/086OR 615 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 60 · 7f216y Goo 130 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 62 · 1m GS 134 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 62 par13/095OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath51st1st0
2026-08-23Brighton51st1st0
2026-08-06Brighton65th6th−1
2026-07-20Windsor63rd4th−1
2026-07-04Nottingham62nd3rd−1
2026-06-21Brighton53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0321/066/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/03/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
22/05/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
13/06/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07
21/06/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
04/07/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
20/07/20263rd17/255%80%+0.25
06/08/20265th8/158%20%-0.38
23/08/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
13/09/20261st8/158%100%+0.42