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9

Darvel

8yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 67

Brighton · Bet 20 Pound Get 40 Pound In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap · 7f 216y

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Yet to score this term but in good form until only fifth of 7 in handicap at Salisbury (1m, good to soft) last month. Needs to get back on track.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 28/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m53y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/10/2025 · OR 75 par28/104OR 755 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 74 · 1m Goo 135 · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Bath 29/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 72 · 1m Fm 135 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 72 par29/045OR 725 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 70 · 1m Sta 139 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 68 · 1m Gd 133 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 68 par14/065OR 685 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 7f216y Goo 154 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Epsom Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 68 · 1m113y GF 137 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 68 par9/075OR 685 @ Chepstow 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 69 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Salisbury 21/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 68 · 1m Goo 154 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 68 par21/085OR 68projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Salisbury55th5th0
2026-07-24Chepstow54th4th0
2026-07-09Epsom Downs53rd3rd0
2026-06-21Brighton52nd2nd0
2026-06-14Salisbury513th13th0
2026-05-27Kempton510th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1027/059/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength22%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/10/20257th28/10%14%+0.14
05/04/20269th18/15%20%+0.15
29/04/20265th8/158%20%-0.38
27/05/202610th50/10%31%+0.31
14/06/202613th28/10%0%0.00
21/06/20262nd17/255%80%+0.25
09/07/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71
24/07/20264th9/153%40%-0.13
21/08/20265th10/382%33%-0.49