Dion Baker
7yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 71
Brighton · Bet 20 Pound Get 40 Pound In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap · 7f 216y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Brighton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Brighton | 2 | 9th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-08-06 | Brighton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newmarket | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Yarmouth | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Brighton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 23/08/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 47% | -0.24 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |