6
Gone Rogue
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 69
Brighton · Bet 20 Pound Get 40 Pound In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap · 7f 216y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Goodwood | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Brighton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Sandown | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Brighton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Brighton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newbury | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |