Newfangled
5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 72
Brighton · Bet 20 Pound Get 40 Pound In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap · 7f 216y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Windsor | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Brighton | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Windsor | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ascot | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Windsor | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |