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4

Bohemian Breeze

6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 64

Brighton · Matchbook Monthly Bet-Builder Rebate Handicap · 1m 3f 198y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual 1¼m winner here in June and has performed with credit when in the frame here on both runs since, third of 7 in handicap (1¼m, good to firm) on latter occasion.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 17/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 64 · 1m2f Std 132 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 64 par17/015OR 646 @ Lingfield 24/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m4f Std 135 · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Chelmsford City 26/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m5f66y Std 135 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 60 par26/036OR 606 @ Bath 27/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 59 · 1m3f137y Fm 135 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 59 · 1m3f137y Gd 134 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 59 par4/056OR 596 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 55 · 1m1f207y Gd 135 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Brighton 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 60 · 1m1f207y GF 135 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 60 par30/066OR 604 @ Brighton 06/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 64 · 1m3f198y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Brighton 24/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 63 · 1m1f207y Goo 133 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 63 par24/086OR 63projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Brighton63rd4th−1
2026-08-06Brighton44th3rd+1
2026-06-30Brighton61st2nd−1
2026-06-09Brighton61st2nd−1
2026-05-04Bath69th10th−1
2026-04-27Bath64th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0127/0430/0624/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength70%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/01/20267th28/10%25%+0.25
24/01/202612th33/10%0%0.00
26/03/20264th14/126%57%+0.31
27/04/20264th5/287%57%-0.30
04/05/20269th16/583%0%-0.83
09/06/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
30/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
06/08/20264th10/147%25%-0.22
24/08/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02