7
Darkest Red
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 62
Brighton · Matchbook Monthly Bet-Builder Rebate Handicap · 1m 3f 198y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength30%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Epsom Downs | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Yarmouth | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 15/09/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 14/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |