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4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 67

Brighton · Matchbook Monthly Bet-Builder Rebate Handicap · 1m 3f 198y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

60%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Deservedly got off the mark in this event in 2025. Twice runner-up over hurdles since but off since pulled up in handicap hurdle at Sandown (2m) in April. Freshened up since, and no surprise to see him bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength82%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 11/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 58 · 1m3f133y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/06/2025 · OR 58 par11/066OR 585 @ Epsom Downs 10/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 58 · 1m4f6y Gd 118 · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 58 par4 @ Sandown 25/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 58 · 1m1f209y Gd 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2025 · OR 58 par25/074OR 585 @ Kempton 13/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 57 · 1m3f219y Sta 119 · beat its mark13/08/2025 · OR 57 par6 @ Windsor 23/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 1m3f99y Goo 136 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 59 par23/086OR 596 @ Epsom Downs 11/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 59 · 1m4f6y Sft 130 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 59 par6 @ Brighton 29/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 60 · 1m3f198y Goo 130 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 60 par29/096OR 604 @ Warwick 04/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 2m Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Newbury 27/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m69y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS27/023projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-25Sandown2+3
2026-03-09Stratford4+1
2026-02-27Newbury32nd0th+2
2025-11-04Warwick42nd1st+1
2025-09-29Brighton61st2nd−1
2025-09-11Epsom Downs62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0613/0829/0927/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/06/20255th6/594%64%-0.30
10/07/20253rd5/287%71%-0.15
25/07/20254th3/184%57%-0.27
13/08/20252nd4/179%92%+0.13
23/08/20253rd1/195%75%-0.20
11/09/20252nd15/890%89%-0.01
29/09/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
04/11/20252nd2/189%92%+0.03
27/02/20262nd5/287%88%+0.01