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3

Dark Sun

5yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 62

Brighton · Play Your Multiples At matchbook.com Handicap · 6f 210y

#9

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally got off the mark at Bath (5f) in June and gained a second success here (6f, good to firm) in August. Rare below-par effort under softer ground conditions when twelfth of 17 in handicap returned to Bath 15 days ago. The sort to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength76%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 59 par25/046OR 596 @ Windsor 07/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 57 · 6f12y Goo 127 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Brighton 29/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 55 · 5f215y Goo 135 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 55 par29/056OR 556 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 54 · 5f10y Goo 134 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Salisbury 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 59 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 59 par11/076OR 595 @ Lingfield 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 59 · 6f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Ffos Las 12/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 59 · 5f Gd 134 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 59 par12/086OR 596 @ Brighton 24/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 58 · 5f215y Goo 133 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 58 par2 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 62 · 5f160y GS 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 62 par13/092OR 62projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath212th7th+4
2026-08-24Brighton61st1st0
2026-08-12Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-07-25Lingfield53rd2nd+1
2026-07-11Salisbury64th4th0
2026-06-13Bath61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0413/0612/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength42%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20267th12/137%33%-0.04
07/05/20264th9/153%57%+0.05
29/05/20264th7/163%75%+0.12
13/06/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
11/07/20264th15/261%25%-0.36
25/07/20263rd13/266%67%+0.01
12/08/20264th13/266%57%-0.09
24/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
13/09/202612th9/153%31%-0.21