10
Pennine Way
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 56
Brighton · Play Your Multiples At matchbook.com Handicap · 6f 210y
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Brighton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Doncaster | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Yarmouth | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Catterick | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 54% | -0.20 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 20/08/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 30% | -0.49 |