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6

Port Hedland

5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 47

Brighton · Download The Matchbook Exchange App Apprentice Handicap · 5f 215y

#6

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened his account for the year in classified race at Bath in June. Not disgraced over C&D and when a close sixth of 8 in handicap at Bath (5.7f, good to firm) last 2 runs. Well in the mix with hood back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 46 · 7f36y Std 126 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 46 par21/046OR 466 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 45 · 5f160y Goo 126 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Brighton 29/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 45 · 5f215y Goo 126 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 45 par29/056OR 456 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 44 · 5f160y Gd 135 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 44 par6 @ Brighton 30/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 50 · 5f215y GF 135 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 50 par30/066OR 506 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 50 · 5f GF 128 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Brighton 06/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 49 · 6f210y Goo 135 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 49 par6/086OR 492 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 48 · 5f215y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 48 · 5f160y Goo 128 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 48 par2/096OR 48projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath66th6th0
2026-08-23Brighton28th3rd+4
2026-08-06Brighton68th8th0
2026-07-14Leicester65th5th0
2026-06-30Brighton68th8th0
2026-06-05Bath61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/045/066/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20267th14/126%14%-0.12
22/05/20269th5/174%33%-0.40
29/05/20266th14/126%58%+0.32
05/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
30/06/20268th7/163%30%-0.33
14/07/20265th3/184%20%-0.64
06/08/20268th22/10%0%0.00
23/08/20268th50/10%53%+0.53
02/09/20266th17/255%29%-0.27