Royal Rizzi

2yo Filly · 8-12

Craon · Prix Groupama (prix De Champagne) Maiden Stakes · 6f 101y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

75%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read

Move▼1

Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C3.5

Today:

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-02	Lyon-Parilly	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-18	Dieppe	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-07	Chantilly	2	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-05-04	Chantilly	3			+2	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength69%

Delivery trend -21.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/07/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	60%	+0.60
18/07/2026	5th	14/1	26%	67%	+0.40
02/09/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	90%	+0.16