18
Nova Tim
3yo Filly · 0-0
Craon · Prix Loxam - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#18
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Vincennes | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Enghien | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Vincennes | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Vincennes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Vincennes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Vincennes | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 15/02/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 70% | +0.65 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/05/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |