8
Lilly's Light
3yo Filly · 9-6
Craon · Prix Lesieur (prix Du Chene) Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Clairefontaine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Saint-Malo | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Angers | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 90% | -0.00 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 85% | +0.24 |