4
Invincible Irish
2yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 61
Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Nursery Handicap · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 8.8)
Highest class: BHA61
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Naas | BHA61 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cork | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Curragh | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +25.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2026 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/08/2026 | 13th | 400/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 17/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |