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2yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 74

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Nursery Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

100%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off 12 weeks (gelded) and proved a different proposition in first-time tongue tie when landing 11-runner maiden over C&D (good) 24 days ago, always holding on. Open to more progress on his handicap debut. Big shout.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f Sft 13312/06C8C8 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 1264/09C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down Royal?1st1st0
2026-06-12Gowran Park?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +92.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20268th11/142%13%-0.30
04/09/20261st12/137%100%+0.63