5
Santo Parvenue
2yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 59
Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Nursery Handicap · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Naas | BHA47 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Bellewstown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cork | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength79%
Delivery trend -12.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 17/09/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |