7
Stellar Path
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 50
Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Nursery Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 8.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Naas | BHA54 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Curragh | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sligo | BHA57 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Curragh | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Listowel | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cork | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength46%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 31/05/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/07/2026 | 8th | 400/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 05/08/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 16/08/2026 | 10th | 250/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/09/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 46% | +0.41 |