3
Navy Waters
5yo Mare · 9-12 · OR 84
Down Royal · Coors Fillies Handicap · 1m 4f 194y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Galway | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | BHA85 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Gowran Park | BHA85 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA85 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | BHA85 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 76% | +0.34 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 08/09/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |