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7

Nellcote

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 82

Down Royal · Coors Fillies Handicap · 1m 4f 194y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improving Sottsass filly. Landed 1½m maiden at Limerick in July before an excellent second of 11 on handicap debut at the Curragh (1½m, good) last month. That form is working out very well so she's a big player with better still to come.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m Goo 12920/05C8C8 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m4f65y Gd 12911/07C8BHA83 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 83 · 1m4f Goo 125 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 83 par22/0883OR 83projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22CurraghBHA832nd2nd0
2026-07-11Limerick?1st1st0
2026-05-20Gowran Park?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0511/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +21.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20264th11/142%63%+0.20
11/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
22/08/20262nd14/126%90%+0.64