10
Tatum
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 69
Down Royal · Coors Fillies Handicap · 1m 4f 194y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA70 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | BHA65 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | BHA65 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA65 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | BHA67 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-17 | Leopardstown | BHA61 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 13/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 94% | +0.10 |
| 17/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 69% | +0.22 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 31/07/2026 | 15th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.30 |