3
Keogie
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 76
Down Royal · Madri Excepcional Maiden · 7f 26y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Navan | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gowran Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.78 |
| 22/04/2026 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 42% | -0.00 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 77% | -0.07 |