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10

Orellana

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 75

Down Royal · Madri Excepcional Maiden · 7f 26y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

28%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sent off 125/1 but took another step forward when 1½ lengths second of 17 in 7f Fairyhouse maiden last week, racing freely but keeping on. Not out of this if improving again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR - · 1m Goo 1293/08C8C8 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 5f Goo 1294/09C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR - · 7f Goo 12921/09C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Fairyhouse?2nd2nd0
2026-09-04Down Royal?4th4th0
2026-08-03Naas?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/084/0921/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +25.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/202610th150/10%44%+0.44
04/09/20264th50/10%73%+0.73
21/09/20262nd125/10%94%+0.94