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9

Alex Belardo

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 60

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 7f 26y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

51%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took this in 2024 and back to winning ways in C&D handicap in June. Not so good in 2 runs since 10 weeks apart but no surprise to see a better showing back at Down Royal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA57 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 57 · 7f Std 139 · beat its mark28/01/2026 · OR 57 par28/0157OR 57BHA58 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 58 · 7f Std 140 · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 58 parBHA58 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 58 · 1m Std 140 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 58 par6/0358OR 58BHA58 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 58 · 7f Std 140 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 58 parBHA57 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 57 · 1m Std 139 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 57 par1/0457OR 576 @ Wolverhampton 01/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 56 · 1m142y Std 131 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 56 parBHA58 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 58 · 7f Sft 140 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 58 par19/0658OR 58C8 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 63 · 7f195y Gd 139 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 63 parBHA61 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 61 · 7f Sft 131 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 61 par8/0961OR 61projClass-projected finish: 7th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08GalwayBHA616th6th0
2026-07-03Bellewstown?11th11th0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA581st1st0
2026-06-01Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-04-01DundalkBHA576th6th0
2026-03-20DundalkBHA585th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0120/0319/068/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 5-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/01/20263rd20/10%85%+0.85
13/02/20263rd10/382%83%+0.01
06/03/20263rd11/271%83%+0.12
20/03/20265th15/261%69%+0.09
01/04/20266th4/179%50%-0.29
01/06/20262nd11/271%90%+0.19
19/06/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
03/07/202611th15/261%29%-0.32
08/09/20266th15/261%50%-0.11