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15

Barbapapa

7yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 74

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 7f 26y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

38%

Place Prob

36%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended long losing run at Dundalk last October. Turned in his best effort of this season when third of 8 at Naas (7f) 10 weeks ago, collared only late on. Could be set to capitalise on his reduced mark in the coming weeks. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA82 @ Cork 13/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 19 · OR 82 · 7f Gd 125 · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 82 par13/0682OR 822 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 82 · 6f20y Std 115 · beat its mark31/07/2025 · OR 82 par3 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 82 · 6f Std 130 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 82 par21/083OR 82BHA79 @ Dundalk 17/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 79 · 7f Std 124 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 79 parBHA78 @ Dundalk 31/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 78 · 6f Std 127 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 78 par31/1078OR 78BHA83 @ Dundalk 14/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 83 · 6f Std 143 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 83 parBHA82 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 82 · 6f Gd 123 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 82 par23/0582OR 82BHA80 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 80 · 7f Gd 119 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 80 parBHA78 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 135 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 78 par22/0778OR 78projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22NaasBHA783rd3rd0
2026-06-14CorkBHA809th9th0
2026-05-23CurraghBHA8212th12th0
2025-11-14DundalkBHA833rd3rd0
2025-10-31DundalkBHA781st1st0
2025-10-17DundalkBHA795th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0617/1023/0522/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20253rd14/126%89%+0.63
31/07/20255th4/179%64%-0.15
21/08/20256th12/137%62%+0.25
17/10/20255th11/271%33%-0.38
31/10/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
14/11/20253rd9/488%78%-0.10
23/05/202612th22/10%48%+0.48
14/06/20269th33/10%43%+0.43
22/07/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24