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2

Faoladh

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 68

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 7f 26y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice in handicaps this season, bouncing back to form when scoring at the Galway Festival (7f). One of his better efforts again when fourth at Listowel last week, albeit better placed than most.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA67 @ Down Royal 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 67 · 7f Goo 137 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 67 par29/0567OR 67BHA72 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 72 · 7f45y Goo 142 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 72 parBHA72 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 72 · 7f Goo 142 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 72 par8/0772OR 72BHA71 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 71 · 7f50y Goo 141 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 71 parBHA68 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 68 · 1m123y Yie 138 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 68 par28/0768OR 68BHA68 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 68 · 7f Yie 138 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 68 parBHA69 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 69 · 6f Std 168 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 69 par10/0969OR 69BHA69 @ Dundalk 18/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 69 · 7f Std 140 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 69 parBHA69 @ Listowel 21/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 69 · 1m Yie 139 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 69 par21/0969OR 69projClass-projected finish: 5th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21ListowelBHA694th4th0
2026-09-18DundalkBHA6911th11th0
2026-09-10LaytownBHA695th5th0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA681st1st0
2026-07-28GalwayBHA6814th14th0
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA7113th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0516/0710/0921/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength97%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
18/06/20266th9/276%64%-0.12
08/07/20269th12/137%43%+0.06
16/07/202613th7/163%8%-0.55
28/07/202614th33/10%19%+0.19
01/08/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
10/09/20265th11/271%56%-0.15
18/09/202611th11/142%23%-0.19
21/09/20264th20/10%79%+0.79