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4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 60

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 7f 26y

#12

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Still a maiden after 16 runs but plenty of good efforts this year and probably remains in form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 72 · 6f Hvy 135 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 72 par15/0372OR 72BHA71 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 21 · OR 71 · 6f Sft 141 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 71 parBHA70 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 70 · 7f Gd 140 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 70 par4/0570OR 70BHA68 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 68 · 7f94y Goo 138 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 68 parBHA64 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 64 · 1m Goo 134 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 64 par18/0664OR 64C7 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 63 · 1m40y Gd 142 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 63 parBHA63 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 63 · 1m20y Goo 133 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 63 par27/0863OR 63BHA61 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 61 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 61 parBHA61 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 61 · 6f Goo 131 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 61 par21/0961OR 61projClass-projected finish: 4th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA6110th10th0
2026-09-09CorkBHA616th6th0
2026-08-27NavanBHA634th4th0
2026-07-15Killarney?3rd3rd0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA6410th10th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA689th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0318/0527/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 8-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength21%

Delivery trend -4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/20267th14/126%45%+0.19
19/04/20267th20/10%70%+0.70
04/05/20266th9/153%64%+0.12
18/05/20269th14/126%43%+0.17
18/06/202610th8/158%40%-0.18
15/07/20263rd14/126%85%+0.58
27/08/20264th4/179%75%-0.04
09/09/20266th8/158%71%+0.13
21/09/202610th9/153%44%-0.09