11
In The Gloaming
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 63
Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 7f 26y
#15
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 8.1)
Highest class: BHA69
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA69 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | BHA72 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Cork | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gowran Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 31/07/2026 | 18th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 25/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |