16
Lar Na Coille
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 48
Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 7f 26y
#16
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 10.3)
Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Leopardstown | BHA53 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Navan | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-05-05 | Curragh | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 8-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2025 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 19/04/2026 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 39% | +0.39 |
| 11/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |