5
Thaloria
4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 65
Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 7f 26y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 9.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | BHA69 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Down Royal | BHA71 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA73 | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Leopardstown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Dundalk | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Dundalk | BHA67 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 4-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/12/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 28/01/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 20/02/2026 | 13th | 15/2 | 61% | 8% | -0.53 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/05/2026 | 19th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 18/09/2026 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |