IvyArcIvyArc
12

Zheleznaya Dama

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 63

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap · 7f 26y

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Career best when winning 16-runner handicap at Naas (7f) last month but pestered for the lead and was brushed aside at Leopardstown next time. Worth another chance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: BHA57
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 12/06/2025 · Pos 16th of 17 · OR - · 7f47y Sft 12912/06C8C8 @ Curragh 27/06/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 7f Goo 128C8 @ Gowran Park 26/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 7f Gd 12026/07C8C8 @ Gowran Park 13/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 7f Goo 125BHA57 @ Down Royal 05/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 57 · 7f27y Gd 125 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 57 par5/0957OR 57BHA60 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 60 · 6f150y Gd 140 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Killarney 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m30y Gd 140 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 60 par14/0760OR 60BHA62 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 62 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 62 parBHA65 @ Leopardstown 20/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 65 · 7f Goo 130 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 65 par20/0865OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20LeopardstownBHA6512th12th0
2026-08-03NaasBHA621st1st0
2026-07-14KillarneyBHA602nd2nd0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA605th5th0
2026-06-14CorkBHA610
2025-09-05Down RoyalBHA573rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0613/0814/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength55%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/202516th20/10%6%+0.06
27/06/202513th300/10%0%0.00
26/07/202510th250/10%40%+0.40
13/08/20258th200/10%46%+0.46
05/09/20253rd3/184%85%+0.00
11/07/20265th12/137%69%+0.32
14/07/20262nd5/287%91%+0.04
03/08/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
20/08/202612th15/261%15%-0.45