IvyArcIvyArc
12

Autocrat

6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 40

Down Royal · Pravha Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 3f 10y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored at Dundalk in January but has struggled on turf more recently. Goes back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA62 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 62 · 2m Std 132 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 62 par16/0162OR 62C8 @ Dundalk 23/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 62 · 1m2f150y Std 142 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 62 parBHA71 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 71 · 1m2f150y Std 141 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 71 par20/0371OR 71BHA60 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m5f190y Sft 142 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 60 parBHA56 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 19 · OR 56 · 1m4f180y Gd 138 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 56 par15/0556OR 56BHA52 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 52 · 1m2f40y Goo 134 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 52 parBHA48 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 48 · 1m4f179y Goo 130 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 48 par20/0748OR 48BHA43 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 43 · 1m4f194y Goo 125 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 43 parBHA40 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 40 · 1m1f30y Goo 122 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 40 par15/0940OR 40projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15PunchestownBHA406th6th0
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA438th8th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA489th9th0
2026-07-11NavanBHA5210th10th0
2026-05-15LeopardstownBHA5616th16th0
2026-05-03SligoBHA6010th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/013/0520/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength36%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20264th12/137%67%+0.30
23/01/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
20/03/20267th13/266%50%-0.16
03/05/202610th9/276%31%-0.46
15/05/202616th12/137%17%-0.20
11/07/202610th12/137%18%-0.19
20/07/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
04/09/20268th14/126%36%+0.10
15/09/20266th10/147%58%+0.11