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3

Chapel Island

3yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 55

Down Royal · Pravha Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 3f 10y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hit the frame twice in low-grade handicaps this season, latest when third at Gowran last month, and probably remains in form, mid-field again at Dundalk on Friday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Navan 28/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m20y Yie 133 · below its mark28/08/2025 · OR 72 par28/08C7OR 72BHA70 @ Bellewstown 02/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 70 · 7f195y Sft 138 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 70 parBHA64 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 64 · 7f Gd 132 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 64 par28/0564OR 64BHA62 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 62 · 1m2f96y Sft 132 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 62 parBHA60 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 60 · 1m2f194y Goo 140 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 60 par4/0760OR 60BHA59 @ Down Royal 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 59 · 1m5f Goo 133 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 59 parBHA58 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 58 · 1m1f100y GF 132 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 58 par12/0858OR 58BHA58 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 58 · 1m6f Goo 128 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 58 parBHA55 @ Dundalk 25/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m4f Std 131 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 55 par25/0955OR 55projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25DundalkBHA557th7th0
2026-08-27NavanBHA588th8th0
2026-08-12Gowran ParkBHA583rd3rd0
2026-07-17Down RoyalBHA594th4th0
2026-07-04NaasBHA604th4th0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA625th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0820/0612/0825/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20258th66/10%13%+0.13
02/10/20257th33/10%40%+0.40
28/05/20268th7/282%42%-0.40
20/06/20265th22/10%56%+0.56
04/07/20264th8/158%80%+0.22
17/07/20264th7/282%50%-0.32
12/08/20263rd4/179%86%+0.07
27/08/20268th10/147%59%+0.11
25/09/20267th7/163%54%-0.09