8
Ellens Bay
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 50
Down Royal · Pravha Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 3f 10y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 10.2 /10 (raw 10.2)
Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA53 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sligo | BHA54 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Roscommon | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Dundalk | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Dundalk | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength27%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 11/02/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 30/06/2026 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 31/08/2026 | 16th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |