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Tassarolo

5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 58

Down Royal · Pravha Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 3f 10y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twelve runs since last win in 2025. Had been given some help by the handicapper and again shaped quite well when fourth of 12 in handicap at this course (13f, good) 24 days ago. Can go well again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA119 @ Cork 05/04/2026 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR 119 · 2m3f Yie 150 · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 119 par5/04119OR 119BHA60 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 19 · OR 60 · 1m4f180y Gd 142 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Down Royal 29/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 60 · 2m Goo 142 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 60 par29/0560OR 60BHA60 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 60 · 1m4f Goo 142 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 60 · 1m3f103y Gd 142 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 par15/0760OR 60BHA60 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 60 · 1m4f179y Goo 142 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 60 parBHA118 @ Wexford 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 118 · 2m180y Goo 155 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 118 par7/08118OR 118BHA60 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m4f Goo 144 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 60 parBHA58 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 58 · 1m4f194y Goo 140 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 58 par4/0958OR 58projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA584th4th0
2026-08-15TramoreBHA605th5th0
2026-08-07WexfordBHA1184th4th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA607th7th0
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA603rd3rd0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA608th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0412/067/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/202615th33/10%22%+0.22
15/05/20265th6/168%78%+0.09
29/05/20265th5/174%69%-0.04
12/06/20268th3/184%56%-0.28
15/07/20263rd10/147%86%+0.38
20/07/20267th10/382%40%-0.42
07/08/20264th10/147%57%+0.10
15/08/20265th5/174%50%-0.24
04/09/20264th9/153%73%+0.20