9
Augusta Rock
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 50
Down Royal · Pravha Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 3f 10y
#8
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA51 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Down Royal | BHA51 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Killarney | BHA51 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | BHA53 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Dundalk | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Dundalk | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.21 |
| 24/10/2025 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 19/11/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/05/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 13% | -0.72 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 69% | +0.14 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.08 |