4
Connecteo
3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 58
Down Royal · Pravha Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 3f 10y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Dundalk | BHA58 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA56 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | BHA59 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | BHA60 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA61 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA58 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 4-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 07/11/2025 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/05/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 92% | +0.86 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.05 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 25/09/2026 | 13th | 3/1 | 84% | 8% | -0.77 |