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Flagstone Lady

3yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 60

Down Royal · Pravha Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 3f 10y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

83%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong in the betting and confirmed previous promise when getting off the mark in 13-runner handicap at this course (13f, good) 24 days ago, well on top finish. An 11 lb rise makes things harder but she has few miles on the clock.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: BHA49
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 7f Sft 1294/04C8C8 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR - · 1m Goo 12920/05C8C8 @ Gowran Park 01/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m Yie 1291/06C8BHA55 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m1f163y Yie 135 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 55 par22/0655OR 55BHA53 @ Killarney 13/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m3f73y Gd 133 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 53 par13/0753OR 53BHA51 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 51 · 1m4f17y Goo 134 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 51 par31/0851OR 51BHA49 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 49 · 1m4f194y Goo 123 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 49 par4/0949OR 49projClass-projected finish: 1st of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA491st1st0
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA513rd3rd0
2026-07-13KillarneyBHA538th8th0
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA5513th13th0
2026-06-01Gowran Park?6th6th0
2026-05-20Gowran Park?13th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0422/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20268th66/10%30%+0.30
20/05/202613th80/10%14%+0.14
01/06/20266th40/10%50%+0.50
22/06/202613th9/153%8%-0.45
13/07/20268th40/10%46%+0.46
31/08/20263rd25/10%87%+0.87
04/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13