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13

Kartayaz

9yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 40

Down Royal · Pravha Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 3f 10y

#3

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner who also scored at Dundalk last winter but it has been all downhill since. Makes little appeal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA41 @ Navan 13/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 41 · 1m2f40y Goo 126 · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 41 par13/0741OR 41BHA40 @ Dundalk 15/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m2f150y Std 122 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 40 parC8 @ Laytown 04/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 37 · 6f Std 143 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 37 par4/09C8OR 37BHA40 @ Dundalk 10/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 40 · 1m2f150y Std 122 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 40 parBHA44 @ Dundalk 19/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 44 · 1m4f Std 126 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 44 par19/1244OR 44C8 @ Dundalk 23/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 43 · 1m2f150y Std 130 · below its mark23/01/2026 · OR 43 parBHA42 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 42 · 1m2f150y Std 124 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 42 par30/0142OR 42BHA40 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m1f133y Goo 122 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 40 · 1m4f17y Yie 122 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 40 par18/0540OR 40projClass-projected finish: 13th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA4013th13th0
2026-05-08BallinrobeBHA4011th11th0
2026-01-30DundalkBHA428th8th0
2026-01-23Dundalk?8th8th0
2025-12-19DundalkBHA4410th10th0
2025-12-10DundalkBHA401st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0710/1230/0118/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength33%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20257th11/142%40%-0.02
15/08/202510th16/116%31%+0.15
04/09/20255th25/10%56%+0.56
10/12/20251st50/10%100%+1.00
19/12/202510th14/126%25%-0.01
23/01/20268th33/10%30%+0.30
30/01/20268th25/10%42%+0.42
08/05/202611th33/10%23%+0.23
18/05/202613th28/10%20%+0.20