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10

Thegooseiscooked

9yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 44

Down Royal · Pravha Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 3f 10y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Respectable fourth of 21 in handicap at Navan (1¼m, good, 28/1) 23 days ago. Has a poor strike rate and it remains to be seen if she can back that up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: BHA42
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA50 @ Cork 14/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 50 · 1m Goo 139 · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 50 par14/0850OR 50BHA57 @ Navan 06/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 57 · 1m2f10y Gd 140 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 57 parBHA56 @ Dundalk 19/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 56 · 1m2f150y Std 138 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 56 par19/0956OR 56BHA55 @ Down Royal 29/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m3f10y Yie 137 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 55 parBHA55 @ Gowran Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 55 · 1m Goo 137 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 55 par5/0555OR 55BHA53 @ Fairyhouse 05/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m1f190y Goo 136 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 53 parBHA49 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 49 · 1m2f40y Goo 131 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 49 par11/0749OR 49BHA48 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 48 · 1m1f100y GF 130 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 48 parBHA45 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 21 · OR 45 · 1m2f10y Gd 129 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 45 par5/0945OR 45projClass-projected finish: 4th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA454th4th0
2026-08-12Gowran ParkBHA4810th10th0
2026-07-11NavanBHA493rd3rd0
2026-06-05FairyhouseBHA5313th13th0
2026-05-05Gowran ParkBHA5513th13th0
2025-10-11FairyhouseBHA820

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0829/0911/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength99%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20253rd1/195%75%-0.20
06/09/20257th11/271%67%-0.04
19/09/20256th12/137%62%+0.25
29/09/20254th12/137%77%+0.40
05/05/202613th40/10%14%+0.14
05/06/202613th33/10%8%+0.08
11/07/20263rd12/137%82%+0.45
12/08/202610th7/282%36%-0.46
05/09/20264th28/10%85%+0.85