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16

Cooley's Mist

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 69

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Handicap · 1m 4f 194y

#3

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened his account under a change of tactics when making all at Leopardstown in July. Backed that up at the second attempt when good second there last month and added another placed effort to his tally at Listowel last week. RESERVE

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA61
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA67 @ Leopardstown 07/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 21 · OR 67 · 1m1f Goo 129 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 67 par7/0867OR 67BHA65 @ Gowran Park 20/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 65 · 1m1f100y Hvy 131 · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 65 parBHA63 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 63 · 1m4f17y Yie 123 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 63 par18/0563OR 63BHA62 @ Leopardstown 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 62 · 1m1f Sft 122 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 62 parBHA61 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 61 · 1m2f GF 122 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 61 par27/0661OR 61BHA61 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 61 · 1m5f Goo 121 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 61 parBHA66 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 18 · OR 66 · 1m6f14y Yie 136 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 66 par31/0766OR 66BHA66 @ Leopardstown 20/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 66 · 1m5f Goo 126 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 66 parBHA66 @ Listowel 21/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 66 · 1m6f55y Yie 136 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 66 par21/0966OR 66projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21ListowelBHA663rd3rd0
2026-08-20LeopardstownBHA662nd2nd0
2026-07-31GalwayBHA6616th16th0
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA611st1st0
2026-06-27CurraghBHA613rd3rd0
2026-06-04LeopardstownBHA623rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/084/0631/0721/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1788% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength67%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20254th15/261%85%+0.24
20/09/20257th7/163%60%-0.03
18/05/20268th14/126%30%+0.04
04/06/20263rd33/10%86%+0.86
27/06/20263rd5/174%82%+0.08
16/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
31/07/202616th11/271%12%-0.59
20/08/20262nd7/163%90%+0.27
21/09/20263rd11/271%86%+0.15