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9

Earthsong

4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 73

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Handicap · 1m 4f 194y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed previous form when winning 13-runner handicap at Gowran in May. Clearly wasn't 100% on the day upped in grade at Ballinrobe (13f, good to soft) the following month and hasn't been seen since. First-time tongue tie applied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 20/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m4f Goo 12620/05C8C8 @ Curragh 04/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 1m4f Gd 127C8 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m4f37y Goo 1294/07C8BHA67 @ Navan 28/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 67 · 1m6f Yie 138 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 67 parBHA68 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR 68 · 1m6f Yie 132 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 68 par16/1068OR 68BHA67 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 67 · 1m6f Hvy 136 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 67 parBHA67 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 67 · 1m5f Goo 137 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 67 par25/0467OR 67BHA67 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 67 · 1m5f170y Goo 139 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 67 parBHA74 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 74 · 1m5f Yie 124 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 74 par22/0674OR 74projClass-projected finish: 14th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA748th8th0
2026-05-20Gowran ParkBHA671st1st0
2026-04-25NavanBHA675th5th0
2026-03-30NavanBHA674th4th0
2025-10-16CurraghBHA689th9th0
2025-08-28NavanBHA673rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0528/0825/0422/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1775% of fieldRange 4-17 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20256th22/10%0%0.00
04/06/20258th80/10%42%+0.42
04/07/20257th40/10%25%+0.25
28/08/20253rd50/10%80%+0.80
16/10/20259th11/271%56%-0.15
30/03/20264th11/271%73%+0.02
25/04/20265th11/271%79%+0.08
20/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
22/06/20268th14/126%0%-0.26