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12

Faro Island

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 71

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Handicap · 1m 4f 194y

#14

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at this meeting last year and proved better than ever when notching his third career success at Galway in July. Shaped better than the distance beaten suggested when seventh of 15 at Galway (1½m, soft) just under 3 weeks ago (hampered approaching final 1f) so could well bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA60 @ Down Royal 29/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 60 · 1m3f10y Yie 136 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 60 par29/0960OR 60BHA65 @ Dundalk 17/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 65 · 1m2f150y Std 131 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 65 parBHA65 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 23 · OR 65 · 1m2f40y Goo 135 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 65 par25/0465OR 65BHA64 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 64 · 1m1f100y Yie 134 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 64 parBHA67 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 67 · 1m4f Goo 127 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 67 par26/0667OR 67BHA67 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m2f Goo 127 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 67 parBHA66 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 66 · 1m4f Yie 136 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 66 par30/0766OR 66BHA73 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 73 · 1m4f17y Goo 133 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 73 parBHA72 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 72 · 1m4f Sft 142 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 72 par8/0972OR 72projClass-projected finish: 7th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08GalwayBHA727th7th0
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA738th8th0
2026-07-30GalwayBHA661st1st0
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA676th6th0
2026-06-26CurraghBHA677th7th0
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA641st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0912/0630/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 176% of fieldRange 3-17 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength28%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 16th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/09/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
17/10/202513th5/287%8%-0.79
25/04/20264th14/126%86%+0.60
12/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
26/06/20267th10/147%54%+0.06
16/07/20266th3/184%38%-0.47
30/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
31/08/20268th12/137%50%+0.13
08/09/20267th10/382%57%-0.25