10
Flying Fortress
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 73
Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Handicap · 1m 4f 194y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA73 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Roscommon | BHA69 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | BHA72 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA73 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | BHA75 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Curragh | BHA76 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1794% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 09/09/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 22/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 04/10/2025 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 36% | -0.27 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 01/06/2026 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.08 |
| 12/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |