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17

Neo Smart

5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 67

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Handicap · 1m 4f 194y

#11

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Dundalk in February and has been shaping up well in turf handicaps, again running well when second of 14 at Punchestown (9f, good) recently. Significantly back up in trip. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA76 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 76 · 7f111y Gd 136 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 76 par11/0576OR 76BHA73 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 73 · 1m Gd 133 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 73 parBHA70 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 70 · 1m Gd 132 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 70 par26/0670OR 70BHA70 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m2f Goo 130 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 70 parBHA69 @ Gowran Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 69 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 69 par7/0869OR 69BHA68 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 68 · 1m Goo 138 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 68 parBHA68 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 68 · 1m4f Goo 119 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 68 par22/0868OR 68BHA68 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR 68 · 1m4f Yie 169 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 68 parBHA66 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 66 · 1m1f30y Goo 127 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 66 par15/0966OR 66projClass-projected finish: 1st of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15PunchestownBHA662nd2nd0
2026-08-29CurraghBHA682nd2nd0
2026-08-22CurraghBHA686th6th0
2026-08-16CurraghBHA686th6th0
2026-08-07Gowran ParkBHA694th4th0
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA705th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0516/0722/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1769% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength82%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20267th7/163%54%-0.09
24/05/20267th12/137%67%+0.30
26/06/20264th22/10%84%+0.84
16/07/20265th6/168%50%-0.18
07/08/20264th4/179%73%-0.06
16/08/20266th7/282%58%-0.23
22/08/20266th9/153%50%-0.03
29/08/20262nd9/153%94%+0.42
15/09/20262nd15/261%92%+0.32