3
Neptunes Staircase
6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 77
Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Handicap · 1m 4f 194y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: BHA78
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA78 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Curragh | BHA79 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2024-07-02 | Roscommon | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-05-14 | Killarney | BHA78 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-05-07 | Navan | BHA78 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-04-23 | Gowran Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 9-17 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2023 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 53% | -0.13 |
| 18/10/2023 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |
| 05/11/2023 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 23/04/2024 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 91% | -0.01 |
| 07/05/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 14/05/2024 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 02/07/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/03/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.12 |
| 31/08/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |