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14

Nod Of Approval

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 74

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Handicap · 1m 4f 194y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Left hurdling debut form behind with an effort much more in keeping with the level he reached on the Flat when second of 9 in juvenile hurdle at this course (17f, good) last month (tongue tied). One to look out for back in this sphere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA71
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Roscommon 19/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f111y Gd 13319/08C8BHA73 @ Leopardstown 18/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 73 · 1m Yie 124 · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 73 parBHA72 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m Sft 130 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 72 par4/0472OR 72BHA71 @ Cork 24/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 71 · 1m4f25y Goo 131 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 71 parBHA74 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 74 · 2m1f Yie 124 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 74 par10/0674OR 74BHA74 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 74 · 1m4f Goo 120 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 74 parBHA75 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 75 · 1m4f84y Yie 126 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 75 par27/0775OR 75C8 @ Ballinrobe 10/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 2m109y Goo 154C0 @ Down Royal 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m1f87y Goo 15228/08C?projClass-projected finish: 6th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Down Royal?2nd2nd0
2026-08-10Ballinrobe?7th7th0
2026-07-27GalwayBHA757th7th0
2026-06-26CurraghBHA745th5th0
2026-06-10LimerickBHA7411th11th0
2026-04-24CorkBHA712nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0824/0427/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1763% of fieldRange 4-17 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength39%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/08/20255th8/158%56%-0.02
18/10/20255th14/126%64%+0.37
04/04/20266th6/168%38%-0.31
24/04/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15
10/06/202611th9/488%23%-0.65
26/06/20265th13/266%69%+0.03
27/07/20267th10/147%57%+0.10
10/08/20267th9/276%50%-0.26
28/08/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16