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4

Open Secret

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 76

Down Royal · Molson Coors Beverage Handicap · 1m 4f 194y

#12

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole career success for Charlie Johnston came over 1¾m at Redcar in 2024 and in good order over hurdles last season, scoring at Naas back in December. Below form in a couple of starts in the spring and returns to the level after 6 months off. Dropped back in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA78 @ Curragh 29/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 25 · OR 78 · 2m Goo 119 · below its mark29/06/2025 · OR 78 par29/0678OR 78BHA78 @ Galway 30/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 78 · 2m110y Sft 138 · below its mark30/07/2025 · OR 78 parC8 @ Navan 20/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 2m5f Yie 16320/09C8C8 @ Wexford 26/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 2m4f Goo 161C8 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR - · 2m3f Sft 16115/12C81 @ Cheltenham 24/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 124 · 2m4f56y Sft 159 · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 124 par1 @ Thurles 19/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 128 · 2m4f175y Sft 154 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 128 par19/021OR 1282 @ Cheltenham 13/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 24 · OR 133 · 2m4f56y Goo 158 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 133 parBHA129 @ Cork 05/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 19 · OR 129 · 2m3f Yie 160 · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 129 par5/04129OR 129projClass-projected finish: 15th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-05CorkBHA12912th12th0
2026-03-13Cheltenham214th14th0
2026-02-19Thurles12nd2nd0
2026-01-24Cheltenham14th4th0
2025-12-15Naas?1st1st0
2025-10-26Wexford?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0626/1019/025/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1713% of fieldRange 7-17 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength27%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/06/20257th80/10%75%+0.75
30/07/20256th11/142%71%+0.28
20/09/20254th4/179%77%-0.02
26/10/20252nd2/189%91%+0.01
15/12/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
24/01/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
19/02/20262nd2/189%67%-0.23
13/03/202614th16/116%43%+0.28
05/04/202612th16/116%39%+0.23