14
Lumio Fall
5yo Gelding · 10-3
Enghien · Prix De Venissieux - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Argentan | 6 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-15 | Caen | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Caen | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Caen | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Caen | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Les Sables | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -18.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 88% | +0.46 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 77% | -0.11 |