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5

Frostelle

5yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 79

Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 01/08/2024 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fas 119 · below its mark01/08/2024 · OR 89 par1/08C6OR 89C7 @ Aqueduct 10/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 86 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark10/01/2026 · OR 86 parC9 @ Aqueduct 04/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 84 · 7f 122 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 84 par4/02C9OR 84C6 @ Aqueduct 08/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 82 · 7f 126 · below its mark08/03/2026 · OR 82 parC6 @ Aqueduct 09/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 83 · 6f110y 126 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 83 par9/04C6OR 83C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 14/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 126 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 84 parC6 @ Monmouth Park 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 85 · 6f 123 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 85 par7/06C6OR 85C5 @ Finger Lakes 23/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 86 parC7 @ Saratoga 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 77 par7/08C7OR 77projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07Saratoga?5th7th−2
2026-06-23Finger Lakes?8th8th0
2026-06-07Monmouth Park?1st2nd−1
2026-05-14Belmont At The Big A?5th6th−1
2026-04-09Aqueduct?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-08Aqueduct?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/088/037/067/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20243rd2/189%60%-0.29
10/01/20264th15/261%40%-0.21
04/02/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
08/03/20263rd7/163%60%-0.03
09/04/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
14/05/20265th9/153%33%-0.19
07/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
23/06/20268th4/998%13%-0.85
07/08/20265th25/10%50%+0.50